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Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2003;23:688-695
© 2003 Elsevier Science NL

Choice of a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis for AVR: does CABG matter?

^a Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
^b Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
^c Providence Health System, Portland, OR, USA

Received 2 October 2002; received in revised form 24 January 2003; accepted 27 January 2003.

^* Corresponding author. Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus Medical Center, Room Bd 162a, A.Z.R. Dijkzigt, Postbus 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Tel.: +31-10-463-5784; fax: +31-10-463-3993
e-mail: j.p.a.puvimanasinghe{at}erasmusmc.nl

Objective: Mechanical valves and bioprostheses are the commonly used devices in aortic valve replacement (AVR). Many patients with valvular disease also require concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We used a microsimulation model to provide insight into the outcomes of patients after AVR with mechanical valves and stented bioprostheses, with and without CABG, and to determine the age-thresholds or age crossover points in outcomes between the two valve types. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of published results after primary AVR with mechanical prostheses (nine reports, 4274 patients, 25,726 patient-years) and stented porcine bioprostheses (13 reports, 9007 patients, 54,151 patient-years) to estimate risks of valve-related events. A hazard ratio of 1.3 was used to incorporate the effect of CABG on long-term survival. Estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was then used to predict the outcomes of patients after AVR, with and without CABG. The model calculations were validated using a large data set from Portland, USA. Results: For a 65-year-old male without CABG, the life expectancy (LE) was 11.2 and 11.6 years and the event-free life expectancy (EFLE) was 8.2 and 8.9 years, respectively, after implantation with mechanical valves and bioprostheses. The lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event was 51 and 47%, respectively. The age crossover point between the two valve types, considering the above outcome parameters, was 59, 60 and 63 years, respectively. CABG reduced LE and consequently EFLE and lifetime risk of an event, but only minimally influenced the patient age crossover points. The model calculations showed good agreement with the Portland data. Conclusions: The currently recommended patient age for using a bioprosthesis (65 years) could be lowered further, irrespective of concomitant CABG. The trade-off between the reduced risks of bioprosthetic failure and of hemorrhage in mechanical valves, resulting from a lower LE, minimized the effect of CABG on the age crossover points between the two valve types.

Key Words: Aortic valve replacement • Coronary artery bypass grafting • Prognostic modeling • Mechanical valves • Bioprostheses

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