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Shishir Karthik
Arun K. Srinivasan
Antony D. Grayson
David A.C. Sharpe
Daniel J.M. Keenan
Brian M. Fabri
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Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2004;26:318-322
© 2004 Elsevier Science NL


Limitations of additive EuroSCORE for measuring risk stratified mortality in combined coronary and valve surgery{star}

Shishir Karthika, Arun K. Srinivasana, Antony D. Graysona, Mark Jacksona, David A.C. Sharpeb, Daniel J.M. Keenanc, Ben Bridgewaterd, Brian M. Fabria*

a Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery and Clinical Governance, The Cardiothoracic Centre-Liverpool, Thomas Drive, Liverpool L14 3PE, UK
b Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Blackpool Victoria Hospital, Blackpool, UK
c Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester, UK
d Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Wythenshawe Hospital, Manchester, UK

Received 14 November 2003; received in revised form 12 January 2004; accepted 9 February 2004.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +151-293-2397; fax: +151-220-8573
e-mail: brian.fabri{at}ctc.nhs.uk

Objective: To study the use of the additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) to predict mortality following adult combined coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve surgery. Methods: Data were collected prospectively, from all four centres providing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England, on 1769 consecutive patients undergoing combined CABG and valve surgery between April 1997 and March 2002. Observed in-hospital mortality was compared to predicted mortality as determined by both additive and logistic EuroSCORE. Results: Observed mortality for simultaneous CABG and valve surgery was 8.7%, compared to 6.7% (additive) and 9.4% (logistic). Sixty-five percent of patients were classified as high-risk (additive EuroSCORE >5); the observed mortality was 11.5%, compared to 8.1% (additive) and 12.8% (logistic). Discrimination was similar in both systems as measured by the C statistic (additive 0.73, logistic 0.73). Conclusions: The logistic EuroSCORE is more accurate at predicting mortality in simultaneous CABG and valve surgery, as the additive EuroSCORE significantly under-predicts in this high-risk group.

Key Words: EuroSCORE • Risk stratification • Simultaneous coronary artery bypass grafting • Valve surgery




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