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European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Vol 9, 419-425, Copyright © 1995 by European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery

ARTICLES

The Edinburgh Cardiac Surgery Score survival prediction in the long- stay ICU cardiac surgical patient

MJ Thompson, RA Elton, KR Sturgeon, SL Manclark, AK Fraser, WS Walker and EW Cameron
Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Royal Infirmary, Edinburgh, UK.

Predictors of outcome in long-stay patients following cardiac surgery have hitherto been ill defined. The aims of this study were to test the Parsonnet pre-operative scoring system and to define a scoring system for inhospital mortality applicable post-operatively to strengthen the clinical decision-making process. Following case note review of 262 consecutive patients who stayed 7 days or more in intensive care, a total of 110 pre-, intra- and post-operative factors were documented. In this long-stay group the Parsonnet score was confirmed to be predictive of 30 day mortality. Univariate analysis identified significant association between mortality in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and the following: inotrope days, (defined as number of inotropes times number of days) ventilation, units of platelets (P = < 0.00001), chest reopening, fresh frozen plasma units (P < 0.002), total parenteral nutrition, noradrenaline, Parsonnet score (P = 0.005), dopamine, bypass time, vasodilators, intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation, enteral nutrition and other major surgery (P < 0.05). Stepwise logistic regression on these significant factors was used to produce the Edinburgh Cardiac Surgery Score (ECS) applicable from Day 10 onwards in the intensive care unit: ECS Score = (Inotrope days) +2 (Ventilation) + (Platelets) + (Parsonnet) -3. The ECS score may be a useful predictor of ICU mortality probability for cardiac surgical patients requiring 10 days or more intensive care and is presently undergoing prospective evaluation in our centre.

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