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Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2005;28:877-881
© 2005 Elsevier Science NL
a Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Skejby Sygehus, Aarhus University Hospital, Brendstrupsvej, DK-8200 Aarhus N, Denmark
b Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Skejby Sygehus, Aarhus University Hospital, DK-8200 Aarhus N, Denmark
c Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Received 2 March 2005; received in revised form 17 July 2005; accepted 6 September 2005.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +45 89495416; fax: +45 89496005. (Email: vibeke.hjortdal{at}dadlnet.dk).
| Abstract |
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2 tests were used to compare the distribution of RACHS-1 categories and the distribution of mortality with PCCC, HD and BO. Linear regression was used to examine the correlation between the RACHS-1 categories and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. Results: The RACHS-1 category frequencies in our population were: category 1: 18.4%, category 2: 37.4%, category 3: 34.6%, category 4: 8.2%, category 5: 0% and category 6: 1.5%. The overall ability of the RACHS-1 classification to predict in-hospital mortality (area under the ROC curve 0.741; 95% confidence interval = 0.690; 0.791) was equal to the findings from larger populations. We found no differences in the category specific mortality when comparing with the larger reported series. There was a positive association between RACHS-1 category and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. Conclusions: The RACHS-1 classification can also be used to predict in-hospital mortality and length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit in a small volume centre.
Key Words: Congenital cardiac surgery Mortality Length of stay Risk adjustment Scoring system
| 1. Introduction |
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| 2. Materials and methods |
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We excluded pacemaker implantations (n = 1), rethoracotomies due to infection (n = 1), heart transplants (n = 10) and neonates under 30 days with patent ductus arteriosus as an isolated cardiac defect (n = 41). A number of patients (n = 109) had more than one operation during the study period and nine patients had more than one procedure during the same admission. Since we did not focus on long-term mortality, we decided to consider multiple operations during the study period as independent observations when these operations occurred during different hospital admissions. However, when more than one operation had occurred during the same admission, we categorised the patient according to the first operation and excluded the latter. This led to the exclusion of nine operations.
In total, 957 operations in 839 patients were available for further analysis.
2.2 Statistical analysis
We first tested whether in-hospital mortality changes had occurred over time at Skejby Sygehus with a
2 test.
We then examined the ability of the RACHS-1 classification to predict in-hospital mortality by estimating the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. An area of 0.5 indicates a model with no predictive power while an area of 1.0 indicates that the model is right every time. Our results were then compared to the dataset of PCCC, HD and BO. For comparison of in-hospital mortality between the individual RACHS-1 groups in our population we used a
2 test.
A likelihood ratio
2-test was used to compare the distribution of RACHS-1 risk categories with the populations of PCCC, HD and BO. A likelihood ratio
2-test was also used to compare the mortality in the specific RACHS-1 risk categories with the ones found in PCCC, HD and BO. Since the conditions for the test was not fulfilled in RACHS-1 category 1, a Fisher's exact test was here used instead.
We then examined if other preoperative factors including sex, weight and age provided additional information beyond the RACHS-1 classification, when estimating the risk of in-hospital mortality. In these analyses we used multivariate logistic regression. Since the relationships between age and mortality and weight and mortality were not linear, the weight was transformed to 100/(weight in kg)2 and age to square root of 365/(age in days + 1) as described in the study by Kang et al. [7].
Finally, we examined whether the RACHS-1 classification was associated with length of stay in the ICU. Since the length of stay at the ICU was not distributed normally, not even after a log transformation, a KruskalWallis test was used to test for equal distribution between the RACHS-1 categories. Thereafter, a Spearman Rho Test, combined with simple summary statistics, was used to identify trends. For each RACHS-1 category a log transformation of the median value was made, and linear regression was performed under the assumption that the variation of the medians was normally distributed. To get a simple understandable graph the values were transformed back to a linear scale. For further examination of the relationship between the RACHS-1 categories and length of stay in the ICU, category-specific KaplanMeier curves were made for the entire group and for the survivors separately. The category specific curves were compared using pair wise log rank tests.
A p-value under 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Stata Statistical Software (release 8.0, Stata Corporation, College Station, TX) and SAS Version 9.1.2 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) were used for the analyses.
| 3. Results |
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The area under the ROC curve for our population was 0.741 (95% CI = 0.690; 0.791). We found that the in-hospital mortality differed between the RACHS-1 category groups (p < 0.001) and that the mortality increased according to the risk group.
The distribution of the different RACHS-1 categories is shown in Fig. 1 . When comparing PCCC, HD, BO and Skejby, we found that risk category distribution was quite similar between the four populations. However, looking at the fractions of the single risk categories within the data sets, it can be seen that BO has fewer patients in RACHS-1 category 1 and more in RACHS-1 category 6. Skejby is not an outlier in any category.
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3.2 Length of stay in the ICU
A higher RACHS-1 risk category was associated with a longer length of stay in the ICU as seen in Fig. 2
. The medians followed an exponential function for both the entire group of patients (R
2
= 0.936) and for survivors (R
2
= 0.964). The high R
2 shows that the RACHS-1 classification explains much of the variation in length of stay.
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| 4. Discussion |
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There is no doubt that risk estimation in congenital heart surgery is a complicated field due to the relative few patients and the large diversity in diagnoses and procedures. Therefore, it is necessary to have a common ground in order to compare results within institutions and between institutions. RACHS-1 is one of the first methods to make a standardised risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery. We acknowledge that it has its limitations [1,6,7]; for example, it is only meant for risk adjustment for groups of children and not for individuals. The classification also lacks a few important procedures such as heart transplants and persistent ductus arteriosus in the premature, accounting for 5% of the surgical procedures in our population. Still in recognition of these limitations RACHS-1 is an easily applicable tool giving the opportunity to compare the quality of care in different institutions.
Overall the ability of the RACHS-1 classification to predict in-hospital mortality in our population resembles the findings in PCCC, HD and BO. When looking at the area under the ROC curve, we found an area of 0.741. This is very similar to the results of PCCC, HD and BO with 0.784, 0.749 and 0.755, respectively. Mortality was shown to differ significantly between all the risk categories. This also resembles the findings in the PCCC and BO populations, except that this difference was not statistically significant between categories 2 and 3 in the BO population.
The relationship between caseload and mortality has been discussed for several years and studies have suggested a negative correlation [8,9]. In Denmark, the referral system for congenital heart disease is dictated by geography. Depending on the address patients are referred to one of the two centres for congenital heart disease. Skejby Sygehus is located in Aarhus, and covers a population of approximately 3 millions resulting in a yearly caseload of approximately 145 operations in children up to the age of 15 years. This number is somewhat smaller than the 250 operations recommended for two surgeons by the EACTS Congenital Heart Disease Committee in 2003 [10]. Therefore, it is of particular importance that our results are equal to those from larger specialised institutions. In order to obtain comparable results we find that organisation and specialisation are of particular importance. Therefore, we have organised a small dedicated team with one primary surgeon.
The ability of the RACHS-1 classification and weight to predict mortality is partly in accordance with the findings of Kang et al. [7], who found that RACHS-1 category, age but not weight were significant predictors of mortality. Overall, weight did not contribute much when added to a predictive model based on RACHS-1 as indicated by the small increase in the area under the ROC curve in our analyses. However, it should be emphasised that low weight was associated with increased risk of mortality in our analyses.
The positive association between RACHS-1 score and length of stay in our study is in accordance with the findings from the BO population. The correlation between RACHS-1 category and length of stay in the ICU in our study in fact resembles the findings of Brown et al. [11] who used an earlier risk classification by Jenkins et al. and may indicate that RACHS-1 may also be useful in relation to other end points than in-hospital mortality.
The recently published Aristotle score [12] introduced a method based on the concept complexity determined by the three factors: mortality, morbidity and technical difficulty. To which extent this complexity adjusted method can prove useful for predicting individual variation and adverse outcomes of congenital heart surgery and thus be an alternative to RACHS-1 remains to be clarified.
4.1 Limitations
This follow-up study was based on the entire population in a well-defined geographic recruitment area with prospective data collection and complete follow-up on in-hospital mortality which limited the risk of selection and information biases. However, four patients in RACHS-1 categories 24 (one in category 2, one in category 3 and two in category 4) were referred for surgical treatment at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children in London during the study period. This could potentially have reduced the mortality in these categories at Skejby Sygehus. Yet if we assumed that these four patients had all died at Skejby Sygehus, the mortality rate would not have changed substantially in these RACHS-1 categories and the rates would still have been lower than the mortality rates in the PCCC and HD populations.
Our study period from January 1996 to December 2002 was approximately the same period covered in the BO study, whereas the PCCC study was based on 1996 data and the HD study on data from the period 1994 to 1995. We cannot entirely exclude the possibility that these differences in the study periods combined with the general progress in cardiac surgery may have confounded the comparisons between the different populations. However, we found no changes in the in-hospital mortality rate at Skejby Sygehus during the study period.
Patients in our population were under or equal to 15 years of age compared to 18 years in PCCC, HD and BO. This difference is probably of minor importance for the interpretation of the results as age was not a predictor of mortality in our study.
No systematic validation of the database in the ICU has been made thus far. However, both collection and registration of the data was done by the same three paediatric anaesthesiologists/intensivists at the ICU throughout the entire study period.
| 5. Conclusion |
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| Footnotes |
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Presented at the joint 19th Annual Meeting of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery and the 13th Annual Meeting of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Barcelona, Spain, September 2528, 2005. | References |
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